Sunday, March 25, 2012

Why MBA?

I am writing this post after preparing for MBA entrance exams for one year (i.e. during my final year in engineering college- 2010-11) and finally clearing two exams- IIFT and SNAP and getting through IMT Ghaziabad. Although none of them is equivalent to an IIM, but still, the colleges are prestigious names.

So, finally not joining any MBA college that year, i decided to give exam this year also, thinking that i could do some justice to myself. But again result was the same as that in the last year in CAT (88 percentile). Now again, this is a petty score which would not get me into any good institute. Pondering over my result one fine day i asked myself whether I even need to do an MBA? Pondering further, i decided -no. I contemplated that doing an MBA would be a sheer waste of my time and money. Although i don't know what they teach there, what is fed into the brains of the scholars at those world-class institutes. But i felt, I could learn it by myself. May be at points i will have limitations of resources. But there are numerous ways to learn a particular thing. Ultimately what matters in life is now how you learned something, but what you learned. Isn't it. The one/two years course at an MBA college is meant to teach the students certain subjects, develop certain skills, provide exposure and all that bull shit. But all these skills and subjects can be learnt by self. But again, the blue-chip companies will always prefer an IIM alumni over a simple graduate who is equally smart. The people will always look up at an IIM or XLRI or Harward alumni and also your qualification will be treated as important by others. So, for those people who aim for such companies and who feel their qualification is a gem to be proud of should go for an MBA. But for others who want to open up a business or may be join some start-up, the preferable path should be to develop those skills by themselves, by personal experience, by reading exhaustively rather than wasting two years at some college, where ultimately you might as well end up in a BIG Consultancy firm which will pay you just enough so that you don't leave them.
Learning by self has some advantages. You can learn what you want, the way you want. No constraints, no explanations to others. The only thing is, you should know what you need to learn. Once that is clear, start working. May be you won't be as rich and famous as the MBA degree holders, but you would have satisfaction.


Friday, March 9, 2012

Market Prediction for March-April '12 - A different view


This article is solely based on the image above.
The image is the movement of BSE Sensex benchmark index of the last one year - from March '11 to Feb '12. I have tried to derive some infrences from the image. However, whatever I have infered is solely based on the retrospective view on the basis of which I am trying to predict the movement of market.
Looking at the image, there are in all six significant hill like structures which i will name as short term peaks. 
Let me name the as A, B, C, D, E and F.

Now from the image we can clearly identify 6 short term (or local) peaks.
Now again, from image 3, corresponding to the 6 peaks, there are respective dips or bottoms or pits.  Lets call them A-, B-, C-, D- and E-.

Giving a thorough look at the image shows us that each peak may be large or small, but always a particular bottom is lower than the previous one, i.e. E- is lower than D-, D- is lower than C- and hence and forth. So A- is the highest pit and E- is the lowest. Now again, looking at F, we find that its subsequent bottom is not reached, and this is what i am waiting for. F-, the local bottom or pit, which is lower than E- and hence will be at a level of 14K-15K. Hence, practically speaking, in the next 2 months, i expect to witness a pit lower than E- i.e. lower than 15,175 points. Hence what i infer here is that the market will fall to al level below 15K over the next two months.  
Taking a look at the present conditions in India, nothing much has changed over the past one year. Inflation has eased a bit and the EU are in a worse condition than before. The currency has stablized somewhat but again, exports and trade balance are not favourable. We have nothing to look forward to in the short term as the government has paralysed and no new reforms are expected before the budget to say the least. However, these points can add to the justification of my theory, but the proof I have provided is sufficient enough. 
This article has minimal factual significance as the assumptions here are many, like all the external factors remain the same. But on statistical interpretation level, it might be useful for inferring.