Market Prediction for March-April '12 - A different view

Expectations

This article is solely based on the image above.

The image is the movement of BSE Sensex benchmark index of the last one year - from March '11 to Feb '12. I have tried to derive some infrences from the image. However, whatever I have infered is solely based on the retrospective view on the basis of which I am trying to predict the movement of market.

Looking at the image, there are in all six significant hill like structures which i will name as short term peaks. 

Let me name the as A, B, C, D, E and F.

Now from the image we can clearly identify 6 short term (or local) peaks.

Now again, from image 3, corresponding to the 6 peaks, there are respective dips or bottoms or pits.  Lets call them A-, B-, C-, D- and E-.

Giving a thorough look at the image shows us that each peak may be large or small, but always a particular bottom is lower than the previous one, i.e. E- is lower than D-, D- is lower than C- and hence and forth. So A- is the highest pit and E- is the lowest. Now again, looking at F, we find that its subsequent bottom is not reached, and this is what i am waiting for. F-, the local bottom or pit, which is lower than E- and hence will be at a level of 14K-15K. Hence, practically speaking, in the next 2 months, i expect to witness a pit lower than E- i.e. lower than 15,175 points. Hence what i infer here is that the market will fall to al level below 15K over the next two months.  

Taking a look at the present conditions in India, nothing much has changed over the past one year. Inflation has eased a bit and the EU are in a worse condition than before. The currency has stablized somewhat but again, exports and trade balance are not favourable. We have nothing to look forward to in the short term as the government has paralysed and no new reforms are expected before the budget to say the least. However, these points can add to the justification of my theory, but the proof I have provided is sufficient enough. 

This article has minimal factual significance as the assumptions here are many, like all the external factors remain the same. But on statistical interpretation level, it might be useful for inferring.